Assessing the North Korea Nuclear Threat

Recent weeks have seen growing alarm over North Korea’s nuclear program. This month, numerous senior U.S. military officials said that Washington believes North Korea has the ability to strike the western United States with a nuclear-tipped KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile. “Our assessment is that they have the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08 and shoot it at the homeland. We assess that it’s operational today,” William Gortney, commander of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) told reporters.
The Wall Street Journal reported that Chinese experts believe Pyongyang has already amassed twenty nuclear warheads, and could double that number within a year. That report came on the heels of a widely discussed report by the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), which assessed that North Korea could drastically expand the size of its nuclear arsenal over the next five years.
Specifically, in its most dire forecast, the SAIS report suggested that North Korea could expand its nuclear arsenal from 10-16 nuclear warheads today, to as many as 100 warheads by 2020. The report’s mid-range forecast was that North Korea will have 50 nuclear warheads in five years’ time, while its low-end estimate is that Pyongyang will have just 20 bombs in 2020.
These revelations have greatly unnerved regional analysts. Indeed, in a recent article on The Diplomat, Robert Kelly argued that if North Korea’s nuclear arsenal keeps expanding, South Korean leaders may need to consider a preemptive strike to destroy Pyongyang’s strategic weapons.

Britain-India: From Courted to Courtier

Making his first official trip to Europe, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited France, Germany and Canada in early April this year. His agenda: acquiring Rafale fighter jets, boosting Indian manufacturing through the Make in India campaign, urging the EU to move forward on a stalled free trade agreement, and attracting trade and investment.
Although Modi has said that he “usually tries to visit two to four nations together” in convenient clusters, the U.K. was not on his itinerary, despite some vigorous courting. While Britain has erected a statue of Mahatma Gandhi in London’s Parliament Square in an attempt to entice India, the former colonial power finds itself on the sidelines.
In 2014, five prominent U.K. politicians made official visits to India, from former Foreign Secretary William Hague to Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne and former Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg. Indeed, Prime Minister David Cameron himself has visited India a whooping three times since assuming office in 2010, including twice in 2013, professing that India is Britain’s “partner of choice” and “relations with India are at the top of the U.K.’s foreign policy priorities.” In 2012, Britain was among the first countries to withdraw its boycott of Modi over his alleged complicity in the 2002 Gujarat riots – the U.S. only followed suit in 2014. In addition, Britain has steadily supported India’s bid for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council.
Yet, the traffic has been largely one way, and interestingly, no Indian prime minister has visited the UK since Atal Bihari Vajpayee in 2001, barring Manmohan Singh’s attendance at the 2009 G-20 Summit in London, which naturally did not focus on the bilateral; and notwithstanding Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s recent March visit to London, few Indian officials have done so.
With the U.K. increasingly moving away from the limited colonial outlook that exemplified its view of India in earlier decades, what explains New Delhi’s indifferent response towards London’s overtures, and the U.K.’s relegation in India’s political, economic, and international calculations?
Despite a deep historical legacy, cultural bonds bridging centuries, a prominent Indian diaspora numbering 2 million, strong educational ties, $15.8 billion in trade in favor of India, and a strong economic relationship with major investments on both sides, Britain is among a host of nations hoping to capitalize on India’s flourishing economy and the opening of its burgeoning defense industry to foreign investment through which it can possibly carve a role for itself in Asia and feature more prominently in the region. As the Economist notes, “Today everyone wants to be best pals with India.”
Diminishing Britain’s influence is potent competition from the exporting states of Japan, France and Germany, which have each created an efficient niche. The U.K.’s attempts to tap into India’s budding defense industry have been impeded by India’s diversification of defense sources, including its widespread military links with France – boosted by the latter’s refusal to condemn India’s 1998 nuclear tests – and the U.K.’s failure to secure the sale of its Eurofighter Typhoon jets, with India opting for the lower cost French Dassault Rafaele jets instead, making France India’s largest European defense partner. (The U.K.’s offer of its Eurofighter jets to India has been recently renewed by Cameron, who claims that his deal is better.) German industrial expertise can contribute to India’s development and infrastructure projects including rail networks and smart cities, as reiterated by Steinruecke of the Indo-German Chamber of Commerce. Japanese technology, investments, and aid in India’s infrastructure projects, including the construction of smart cities, Delhi’s mass rapid transit system, and the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor, plans to further defense and security cooperation, not least to counter Chinese aggression, in return for rejuvenation of its moribund economy through exports and investments to a rapidly flourishing India, have paved the way for a promising partnership.
Despite Cameron’s latest assertion that Britain is a better partner for Modi’s Make in India campaign, in comparison to the likes of Germany and Japan, the U.K. appears to have comparatively little of an exclusive or a unique nature to offer India. Certainly, India can benefit from Britain’s impressive historical expertise and know-how in technology and innovation. Additionally, a large number of British firms operate in India, not least Vodafone, Unilever, Diageo, and British American Tobacco. Indian firms prefer Britain for FDI, and British banks lend more to India than any other country. But while countries like Japan and Germany have been eager to invest in India’s growing economy and the large number of infrastructure projects, the U.K. has been more reluctant to do so, including plans to invest in India’s ambitious 1,000 km Mumbai-Bangalore corridor. Strategic cooperation between India and Britain is being strengthened, especially in the realms of counter-terrorism and civil nuclear cooperation. However, the U.K. has concurrently pressed for a bigger role for Pakistan in Afghanistan, continuing its historic pro-Pakistan incline – something that naturally does not sit well with India.
Clearly, India’s foreign policy focus has shifted to the Indo-Pacific, yet even within Europe, Britain has been consigned to the backburner. Though the relationship between the two countries will likely continue to be affable and mutually constructive, and substantial economic, strategic and military gains will be achieved for both sides, Britain will not be India’s only reciprocal “partner of choice” as Cameron wishes, and it is far-fetched to think ties can develop into a “special relationship.”
Far from writer Patrick French’s critique of Britain’s narrow-minded colonial mindset and its subsequent incapability to fathom how India is growing, Britain’s recent attitude exhibits a pragmatic necessity and appreciation of engaging with a rising India. India’s reactions are also characterized by pragmatic reflections, including an acknowledgement of Britain’s fading international clout. In the transactional and ephemeral world of international relations, historical links and shared values matter, but ultimately the future of the relationship will depend on India’s evaluation of what it derives from the ties. This will determine where Britain stands on India’s radar and how much political weight India is willing to invest to deepen the level of engagement.
Overall, the evolving Indo-British relationship reflects shifting geopolitical realities, including a significant change in the global balance of power, a multipolar world in which India is an emerging power, and a Britain that is no longer the great power it once was.

Isro to assemble key vehicle for human spaceflight

 

 

 

BENGALURU: The Indian Space Research Organisation (Isro) is inching closer towards its Human Space Mission. It is test launching a version of its Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology Demonstrator (RLV-TD) later this year, following a successful test of the crew module last year.

The agency has already transported and positioned boosters for the launch expected in second half of this year. It will begin assembling the vehicle in 8-10 weeks.

"The launch was to happen sometime in mid-2015, but there's been a delay as we decided to complete our commercial launches first," a senior Isro official said. With the crew module recovery tests done, the next crucial test will be to test the RLV-TD for the Hypersonic Experiment Mission-01 (HEX-01).

"As with the crew module test, there'll be no people aboard this vehicle. We will test the technology, which has been worked upon for over half-a-decade," an Isro spokesperson said.

The UPA-led government had sanctioned Rs 145 crore for the Human Space Mission. The RLV-TD is a major step towards realising this programme, mooted to begin in 2017. The objective is to carry a two-member crew to Low Earth Orbit and return them safely. The winged RLV-TD has been configured to act as a flying test bed to evaluate various technologies like hypersonic flight, autonomous landing, powered cruise flight and flight using air breathing propulsion.

As part of the pre-project activities, Isro is focusing on the development of critical technologies for subsystems such as Crew Module, Environmental control and Life Support System, Crew Escape System and so on. Many of these are already complete. Eventually, Isro will have to use the GSLV platform, which is yet to completely gain the confidence of the agency.

ISRO's Made In India RADAR Can Track Space Debris 1,000 km away

 

 

 

ISRO (Indian Space Research Organisation) is in the process of commissioning a multipurpose, 'Made In India' RADAR that can track space debris. This multi-object tracking radar was introduced by M Y S Prasad, the director of Satish Dhawan Space Center today at Sriharikota. The capabilities of this system are mind boggling. It can track any object, as small as about a square meter in size, from a distance of about 1000 km. The radar is expected to be tested during the next PSLV rocket launch in June.

Mr. Prasad informed that there are only five companies in the world that can build a radar of this sophistication. He named Raytheon (US), Northrop Grumman (US), Lockheed Martin (US), Elta (Israel) and NEC (Japan). Prasad further informed that with foreign collaboration, the same radar would cost about Rs. 800 crores to build but ISRO team built it for mere Rs. 245 crores. Mr. V Seshagiri Rao, former director of the radar project informed the media that the software written for the radar system alone would be worth about Rs. 100 crore. The project was approved back in August 2012 and ISRO engineers built it well within time.

The new radar is quite unique in its operations. Instead of disc radars that need to keep spinning, this new 35 ton system remains stationary. It's in the shape of a rectangle that measures about 12m x 8m that contains about 4068 radiating elements. These elements are designed to emit RF waves that integrate into a single beam. The engineers can steer the beam to cover most of the sky. Also, the radar's base itself can be moved, thus allowing for the entire sky to be scanned.

ISRO's confident that this radar system will help in their future manned missions. Especially, this radar would prove very helpful to track the re-entry of the crew module from space. ISRO currently plans to use it to protect satellites in the lower earth orbit region.

Until now, ISRO had to rely on the space debris data provided by NASA. The space debris had required ISRO to maneuver the satellites as many as twelve times in the past five years. The new radar will now supplement that information provided by NASA and help ISRO better protect Indian satellites.

Almost all of the components of the system, except for the dome that covers it was design and built by ISRO and Indian industries. ISRO had to import the dome because they could not find any supplier in India who'd assure RF Transparency. Prasad also said that the toned-down version of the radar would prove immensely helpful to the airports to track flights.

Indian Navy Soon To Be The Most Formidable Submarine Force On The Planet

The most important thing about having nuclear weapons is a second strike capability. In a nuclear conflict, one who strikes first may win the war, but one who strikes second makes sure there is no one left to celebrate the win. That’s nuclear deterrence in a nutshell. While it sounds easy in theory, building a nuclear doctrine with a working second strike capability is anything but.

India, for example, has declared a no-first-use of nuclear weapons. Which means, that though India will not initiate a nuclear conflict, if attacked it will retaliate with such ferocity, that it will wipe the enemy off the face of the map. How does India intend to do this? Like any other superpower, India wants to use submarines.


Submarines for Projection of Power ::
If you think about it, submarines are the perfect weapons. Lurking in the depths of the oceans, they move around without being detected and surface to launch the attack on the unsuspecting enemy. Erstwhile superpowers USA and Russia continue to use their SSBNs (ballistic missile submarines) to great effect, projecting their might even today. These SSBNs ensure that even though the land-based missiles and airplanes may have been taken out, the enemy is guaranteed a sending off that it will never forget. And if India wants to be taken seriously on the world stage, it will have to start acting like a superpower, by being able to extend the country’s power across the globe. These submarines are therefore just what India needs.


Current state of submarine force ::
The current state of the Navy’s underwater fleet is, for lack of a better word, worrisome. India currently has 9 Sindhughosh class (Soviet Kilo class) and 4 Shishumar-class (German HDW Type 209) diesel electric subs and a single nuclear powered INS Chakra (Akula II class) sub. For a country with a coastline that measures more than 7,500 km, a fleet of 15 submarines is just not enough. And 15 isn’t the actual number of subs available for duty, because some of them are in ports for refits and maintenance. In comparison, China has a total of 67 submarines in its Navy.


Nuclear Submarine Program ::
India started building its first nuclear submarine, the INS Arihant, under the highly secretive ATV program. In fact the project was such a secret, that it wasn’t until July 2009, when it was actually launched, that it was even officially acknowledged to exist. Work though had started back in the 80s, with Soviet help, to build a nuclear powered hunter-killer sub. India also leased a Charlie-I sub named the INS Chakra between 1987 and 1991 to gain experience in operating nuclear subs. The ATV though moved on from being an attack sub to a ballistic missile carrier as India conducted the second set of nuclear tests in Pokhran. The biggest challenge faced was in miniaturising the Pressurised Light Water Reactor which could fit in the tight confines of the sub’s hull. Based on a Russian design, a land-based version was built by BARC before the actual reactor, of a reported 83 MW capacity, was placed in the sub.

The INS Arihant, after launch in 2009, went through an extensive set of tests including harbour acceptance trials with the on-board reactor going critical in 2013. But it was only in December 2014 that it left the harbour for its sea trials. The Navy Chief, Admiral R K Dhowan, had recently stated that the sea trials of the sub are going “very well”, but refused to give a deadline for their completion.

According to reports, the Arihant should be commissioned by the end of this year, after which it can be put on active patrol duty. But before that can happen, it will have to integrate its primary weapon, the K-15 SLBM (Submarine Launched Ballistic Missile). The Arihant will carry up to 12 of these nuclear capable missiles with a range of 750 km. While this reach is quite low to hit deep inland targets from the middle of the seas, another missile, the K-4 with a range of 3,500 km is also in the works. In fact, a test of the K-4 has reportedly been carried out in secret. Beyond these, the K-5 missile, with a range of 5,000 km, is also being planned. The latter will likely be deployed with MIRVs (Multiple Independently Targetable Reentry Vehicle) which give each missile the ability to target up to four or more targets.

Although the INS Arihant can carry either 12 K-15s or 4 K-4s, the 3 boats which will follow, will be able to carry up to 8 K-4s or 24 K-15s. The next one will be christened INS Aridhaman. And since the rest of the Arihant-class boats will be bigger than the lead boat, they are also expected to have a more powerful nuclear reactor. The crews for these missile carriers are gaining experience in operating nuclear boats on the Akula II class INS Chakra that India had leased in 2012 for ten years.


Future Nuclear Boats ::
But it doesn’t stop here. A follow-on class of 6 SSBNs codenamed S5, almost twice as big as the Arihant-class, was also approved for development. These will be able to carry up to 12 K5 intercontinental ballistic missiles with MIRV warheads. And SSBNs aren’t the only nuclear submarines that the Indian Navy will field. Early this year, the government cleared a project to build six new hunter killer boats (SSN) for the Navy. A joint Navy, BARC and DRDO project, the boats will be designed by Navy’s Directorate of Naval Design and be powered by a new reactor being developed by BARC. SSNs are as important as SSBNs as they can blockade important sea routes, denying the enemy access to important resources in an event of war, and shadow enemy ships. This new SSN will be similar in size to the Arihant-class but will carry advanced torpedoes and be able to move much quicker. Also, India is likely to lease another Akula II for 10 years in 2018, most likely the Kashalot that is 60% complete and in need of funds.


Conventional Submarines ::

Things are looking up for India’s conventional submarine fleet too. Under the Project-75, six French-Spanish Scorpene submarines are being constructed at Mazagon Dock Ltd. The first of these, named INS Kalvari, has recently been ‘undocked’ and will undergo sea trials next year and is expected to be commissioned into the Navy by September 2016. Incidentally, Indian Navy’s first ever submarine, which was a Soviet Foxtrot-class sub, was also called the INS Kalvari. The name Kalvari means Tiger Shark, and in naval tradition, the line of subs will be called the Kalvari-class. Although late by nearly four years, the Kalvari-class will add a punch to the dwindling underwater arm of the Navy.

The nearly 1600-tonne subs have a complement of 31 men and can stay out to sea for 50 days. Its two diesel generation sets give it a submerged top speed of 20 knots (37 km/h). Its weapons suite includes Black Shark heavy weight torpedoes that can sink a ship 50 kms away and Exocet anti-ship missile that travels a few feet from the surface of the sea and hits the hull of a target that’s 180 km away. It’s also one of the stealthiest diesel electric submarines in operation with emphasis on reducing hydrodynamic noise, which makes it invisible to enemy sonar. The last two boats of the class will also feature a DRDO designed Air Independent Propulsion (AIP) system which will give it longer endurance and make it stealthier because they won’t need to surface for air to charge the batteries.

Alongside the Kalvari-class will be six of the next generation P75(I) diesel electric submarines, all of which will be built in India. Apart from the ability to fire long range heavy weight wire guided torpedoes and an AIP system, this new line of subs can also feature land attack capability. For this, the submarines will have to integrate a Vertical Launching System in the hull. The VLS will allows subs (and surface ships) to carry the world’s fastest cruise missile, the Brahmos, with a range of 290 km and the under development Nirbhaya cruise missile which has a range of 1,000 km.

The Brahmos has already demonstrated the underwater launch capability and Nirbhaya too is being designed for launch from multiple platforms. But it remains to be seen if this capability can be integrated into the boats that are likely in contention. DCNS is expected to offer the Scorpene, while Russia is pitching the Amur 1650 which is the export version of the Lada class, which itself is an advance variant of the Kilo-class already in service with the Indian Navy. Other contenders include the S-80 by Navantia of Spain and the German HDW Type 214. India has also asked Japan to participate in the competition with its Soryu-class subs.


Conclusion ::
So India is likely to field nearly 28 submarines including Arihant class subs, Follow-on SSBNs, New SSNs, 6 Kalvari class SSKs and 6 more P 75(I) boats, making it the most formidable submarine force in the Indian Ocean region.